COVID-19 May Have a Longer Incubation Period, Suggests Probability Analysis of Wuhan Cases

By applying the renewal theory in probability to reduce recall bias in initial case reports, scientists have come up with a new estimate for the incubation period of COVID-19. Their mean estimate of 7.76 days, longer than previous estimates of 4 to 5 days, involves the largest amount of patient samples to date in such an analysis.

By providing health authorities with a potentially more accurate figure for the incubation period, the results could inform guidelines for containment efforts such as quarantines and studies investigating the disease's transmission. Countries and health authorities have implemented various containment measures such as quarantines to slow the spread of COVID-19.

To work effectively, these strategies depend on understanding the disease's incubation period, or the time between someone becoming infected and showing the first symptoms of disease, and how much it varies from individual to individual. However, researchers lack a reliable estimate of the incubation period of COVID-19. The few existing estimates of 4 to 5 days were based on small samples sizes, limited data, and self-reports that could be biased by the memory or judgement of the patient or interviewer.

Researchers Jing Qin and colleagues developed a low-cost approach to estimate incubation periods and applied it to 1,084 confirmed cases of COVID-19 that had known histories of travel or residency in Wuhan, China. Their approach improves accuracy by relying on a public database of dates of infection, and uses the renewal theory in probability to reduce recall bias - the inaccurate recollection of past events. Ultimately, the team calculated that the median incubation period was 7.75 days, with 10% of patients showing an incubation period of 14.28 days. The authors note that this last finding may concern health authorities relying on the standard 14-day quarantine, but caution that their approach relies on several assumptions and may not apply to later cases where the virus may have mutated.

Source: American Association for the Advancement of Science

4 Comments on "COVID-19 May Have a Longer Incubation Period, Suggests Probability Analysis of Wuhan Cases"

  1. 13785 27390Perfectly indited content material , thanks for selective info . 152787

  2. 818169 918243Soon after examine a couple of of the weblog posts on your web web site now, and I really like your manner of blogging. I bookmarked it to my bookmark site record and will probably be checking back soon. Pls take a appear at my web page as nicely and let me know what you think. 559794

  3. 922533 117194An extremely fascinating examine, I may possibly possibly not concur entirely, but you do make some extremely valid points. 34021

  4. 857023 507868Generally the New york Weight Loss diet is certainly less expensive and flexible staying on your diet scheme intended for measures nevertheless fast then duty maintain a nutritious day-to-day life. weight loss 977643

Leave a comment

Your email address will not be published.


*