Mathematical Modeling Suggests Kids Half as Susceptible to COVID-19 as Adults

A new computational analysis suggests that people under the age of 20 are about half as susceptible to COVID-19 infection as adults, and they are less likely to infect others. Itai Dattner of the University of Haifa, Israel, and colleagues present these findings in the open-access journal PLOS Computational Biology.

Earlier studies have found differences in symptoms and the clinical course of COVID-19 in children compared to adults. Others have reported that a lower proportion of children are diagnosed compared to older age groups. However, only a few studies have compared transmission patterns between age groups, and their conclusions are not definitive.

To better understand susceptibility and infectivity of children, Dattner and colleagues fitted mathematical and statistical models of transmission within households to a dataset of COVID-19 testing results from the dense city of Bnei Brak, Israel. The dataset covered 637 households whose members all underwent PCR testing for active infection in spring of 2020. Some individuals also received serology testing for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies.

By adjusting model parameters to fit the data, the researchers found that people under 20 are 43 percent as susceptible as people over 20. With an infectivity estimated at 63 percent of that of adults, children are also less likely to spread COVID-19 to others. The researchers also found that children are more likely than adults to receive a negative PCR result despite actually being infected.

These findings could explain worldwide reports that a lower proportion of children are diagnosed compared to adults. They could help inform mathematical modeling of COVID-19 dynamics, public health policy, and control measures. Future computational research could explore transmission dynamics in other settings, such as nursing homes and schools.

"When we began this research, understanding children's role in transmission was a top priority, in connection with the question of reopening schools," Dattner says. "It was exciting to work in a large, multidisciplinary team, which was assembled by the Israeli Ministry of Health to address this topic rapidly."

Reference: Dattner I, Goldberg Y, Katriel G, Yaari R, Gal N, Miron Y, et al. (2021) The role of children in the spread of COVID-19: Using household data from Bnei Brak, Israel, to estimate the relative susceptibility and infectivity of children. PLoS Comput Biol 17(2): e1008559. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008559

Source: PLOS

5 Comments on "Mathematical Modeling Suggests Kids Half as Susceptible to COVID-19 as Adults"

  1. 643372 698207I believe this internet site contains some very amazing data for every person : D. 873371

  2. 665300 419917You produced some decent points there. I looked on the net towards the problem and discovered many people goes together with along together with your website. 610251

  3. 946377 161645Proper humans speeches must seat as nicely as memorialize around the groom and bride. Beginer sound system about rowdy locations should always not forget currently the glowing leadership of a speaking, which is ones boat. best man speeches brother 147729

  4. 957816 761062You can definitely see your enthusiasm within the paintings you write. 850220

  5. 711163 110998I really like your writing style, very good information, appreciate it for posting : D. 427719

Leave a comment

Your email address will not be published.


*